Target Shuffling: Evaluate the Validity of Your Discovery

COVER-Whitepaper_Evaluate-the-Validity-of-Your-Discovery-with-Target-Shuffling-1.jpgIn this paper, John Elder describes the power of Target Shuffling to evaluate the validity of your discovery. It’s a method that is particularly useful for identifying false positives, or when two events or variables occurring together are perceived to have a cause-and-effect relationship, as opposed to a coincidental one. In data mining the more variables you have in your predictive model, the easier it becomes to ‘oversearch’ and identify false patterns among them; What Dr. Elder calls the ‘vast search effect'.

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